Ante-post Series #1

 Ante-post Series #1


With the 6 week countdown for the Cheltenham underway the time has come to build my Ante-post team to take me into the festival. 
My plan for this segment is to try and put up at least one selection every week from now until just before the Festival, with a summary of the team as we head into Cheltenham week itself!
First things first, we need to identify the idea behind Ante-post betting as well as identifying the risk that comes with backing horses this far out of the Festival.
Ideally you want to side with Horses that you KNOW is being targeted for the race. This eliminates the potential risk of your selections owners or trainers deciding to take a different route at the Festival and acts as a bit of a safety net. Having said that there can be a benefit to picking horses who aren't yet confirmed for a particular race. The price for horses that aren't set in stone on where they race will obviously be greater than the ones that are, but like all Ante-post bets.. this is the risk you take!
I tend to do a bit of a mix between the 2, if I can I'll select horses that we know are being targeted for the selected race however I do like to try and get ahead of the market by trying to figure out who goes where in a few races which can be a bit of a minefield at times, especially when it comes to Willie Mullins!
So with that being said lets get stuck in with my first selections for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.


Kopek Des Bordes - Turners Novice Hurdle - 9/1




Ok so I've completely gone against my logic in my introduction here so I think its fair to say that I'm taking a bit of a risk with my first selection. If you follow me on twitter you'll know I've been banging on about this lad all season. He impressed in a bumper first time out at Fairyhouse last march and he was one that I wanted to keep onside since that run.

We first saw him over obstacles at Leopardstown at Christmas where he won very impressively despite a round of pretty poor jumping. I think that came as a bit of a shock to trainer Willie Mullins and the rest of the yard as they were quite happy with how he schooled over hurdles at home. In a recent stable tour to Closutton Willie mentioned he might not have liked something to do with the headgear worn on his last run and seems to think that they'll get that right next time out so I'm happy to forgive him for that. 

The form from his maiden hurdle has worked out quite nicely so far. Fellow stablemate Kawaboomga finished 2nd in that race and has since come out and won very impressively beating the likes of William Munny and Koktail Divin at Fairyhouse last weekend. 

I wanted to get this selection out before the DRF this weekend as Kopek is set to run in the 2 mile Grade 1 at Leopardstown, A race that he'd need to win if he was going to be successful at the festival so I'll be hoping he gets the job done there. 

The risk with this selection comes down to what way he goes at the festival as he currently holds entries in both the Supreme (2m)  and the Turners (2m4f) Novice Hurdles. As I mentioned earlier it can be almost impossible trying to figure out what direction Willie Mullins sends his Novices' but I think we'll see him line up in the Turners for a number of reasons:

Firstly I think its quite clear that the Mullin's yard see Salvator Mundi as their top pick for the Supreme and I imagine Paul Townend will be on board so if Kopek is as good as they think he is then I'd imagine they'd want to split them so Paul can take the ride on both of them at the Festival. 

I'm not sure what it is but there's something quite Ballyburn-espue about Kopek Des Bordes so in my mind they'll take a similar route as they did with him last season. Willie has already said that he's a chaser in the making so I think the step up in trip will suit him just fine and will have no problems going the extra half mile.

The other top novice who hold entries for both races from Willies yard is the J.P. McManus owned Kaid D'Authie. J.P. is notoriously known for wanting to split his top prospects at the festival and after his recent purchase of The New Lion who is bound for the Turners, I think Kaid will be the one who runs in the supreme with Salvator Mundi leaving a space Kopek in this race. 

Now this is all speculation at this point and I could look a bit silly reading this back come March, however at the prices right now I'm willing to take a punt at 9/1. A price that could get even shorter after this weekend providing he wins at the DRF, so if he does turn up here he would be in with a massive chance!


For more updates, news and opinions head over to my X (Twitter) account: https://x.com/OGedgeracing






 

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