Cheltenham Favourites - PLAY or LAY
Cheltenham Favourites - PLAY or LAY
I understand this might be quite a tricky task with still some water to go under the bridge from now until March but I'll give my honest opinion given how the markets are currently shaping up. I'm going to categorise each one into either PLAY, LAY or ON THE FENCE so lets get straight into it!
Supreme Novice Hurdle - El Cairos - 9/2
I can't remember a supreme market every being this open in recent years and it's quite refreshing seeing a horse that doesn't belong to Willie Mullins at the top of the market. El Cairos was travelling all over them in his first run over hurdles at Christmas and I think its safe to say he would've won in a walk if it wasn't for that freak fall after the last. It's hard to be too bullish at this stage as we know Willie Mullins will come firing at the DRF but so far he's yet to unleash anything that's up to the standard of El Cairos. Whilst I wouldn't be putting anyone off the 9/2 available I think I'd want to wait until after the DRF before backing him myslef.
Verdict: ON THE FENCE
Arkle Chase - Lulamba - 13/8
I'm not going to bang on about who I think wins the Arkle as I think we all know what camp I'm in but I do think there's enough reasons to be against this favourite at a rather short price. The first thing to note is 5yr olds have a terrible record in the race since the weight for age allowance was scrapped in 2008 they are 0/11 with Majborough being the latest victim to the trend after being beaten at odds of 1/2 in last years renewal. Although you do have to stay to win over 2 miles at Cheltenham I think it would be fair to say that Lulamba isn't a natural 2 miler so I'd be keen to take him on with a whole host of threats in behind.
Verdict: LAY
Champion Hurdle - Sir Gino - 5/4
Although this is the shortest priced favourite on day 1 of the festival I do think it's the only one that I'd seriously consider getting on side with, even at odds of 5/4! He's had his injury problems over the last 12 months as we all know but the way he came back the win the Christmas Hurdle after such a long lay off was so impressive & he's firmly cemented his spot at the top of the market. This looks like a race that could cut up a fair bit with Lossiemouth still in contention for the Mares Hurdle & the old guard in State Man and Constitution Hill not being in the equation. His biggest rival will most likely come in the shape of The New Lion who I'd expect Sir Gino to beat if they meet on trials day in a few weeks time and if he does, I could certainly see a world where this lad goes off a 4/6 favourite in March!
Verdict: PLAY
Turners Novice Hurdle - No Drama This End - 7/2
This market is almost a carbon copy of the Supreme with it being one of the most open renewals on paper for quite some time. As much as this favourite has been impressive on his last 2 starts I really struggle to see what he's actually beaten with his latest success in the Challow looking like a grade 1 only in name. I know last year was an exception but the Irish have dominated this race in recent years and I'd be surprised if he's still favourite post DRF. I got this race painfully wrong last year but at this stage I'd be against the the British contender.
Verdict: LAY
Brown Advisory Novice Chase - Final Demand - 5/4
I know those race has thrown out a few upsets over the years but this is one favourite I just can't see past. After crossing the line in the Turners last year I think everyone had this race in mind for his novice chase campaign. He's 2/2 over fences and has shown no sign of weakness yet in a division that seems like it's his for the taking. I suppose the only hinderance to his chances would be good ground. He's a proper big chasing type and I'd just worry that if it developed into a sprint finish like last years turners he may get caught out by a speedier type, however this isn't enough of a concern for me to be against him at this time.
Verdict: PLAY
Champion Chase - Marine Nationale - 9/4
Although his seasonal return was a mighty impressive run after a significant error I wouldn't be overly keen on backing last years winner in what could be a deep renewal. As we know this race can be an absolute graveyard for short priced favourites and there's more than enough options to take him on with. His biggest rival might be the ground conditions. He got his ground last year and won very well but I'd seriously be against him if it were to turn up soft or heavy on the day. Obviously he's a horse that has to be respected however with the likes of Il Etait Temps & Majborough behind him in the market I would have no interest at backing him at 9/4.
Verdict: LAY
Mares Hurdle - Wodhooh - 2/1
This is a bit of a tricky one to weigh up at this stage with yet again the big question mark over Willie's star mare Lossiemouth with the option of the Champion Hurdle still very much a possibility. With that being said I'm a big fan of Wodhooh and she's done nothing wrong this campaign with her only defeat coming against Lossiemouth in last years Aintree Hurdle so she definitely deserves her spot at the top of the market. As much as I like her the fact of the matter is if Lossie turns up she simply wins. It's all If's and buts at this stage so taking the 2/1 about the current favourite doesn't seem to hold any value so I'd want to sit tight on this one for now.
Verdict: ON THE FENCE
Stayers Hurdle - Teahupoo - 2/1
I must admit I didn't even have this lad on my radar for this years Stayers Hurdle after he was beaten by stablemate Bob Olinger nearly 12 months ago leaving me to think his best years were behind him but I could not be more wrong! He looked as good as ever over Christmas at Leopardstown where he reversed the form with last years winner whilst leaving the rest of the field for dead which has seen him cement his place at the top of this years market. Having said that there seems to be a few new kids on the block in this division with the likes of Honesty Policy and Impose Toi both impressing in the Long Walk Hurdle last month so Teahupoo is by no means a good thing to regain his crown. 2/1 seems a fair enough price if you did want to back him & I certainly don't want to be laying him at the moment.
Verdict: ON THE FENCE
Ryanair Chase - Fact To File - 2/1
I've seen a lot of people start to turn in relation to Fact to File as the seasons gone on but I'm still firmly in the camp that this is the one to beat once again in March. He was beaten by stablemate Gaelic Warrior on his return in the John Durkan where he probably should've won however I can forgive any horse first time out and was convinced he'd come on for the run. He then went to the King George where I thought he'd have a massive chance but he never looked comfortable and was one of the first beaten over 3miles which clearly isn't his ideal trip. Having said all that he won a weak Ryanair last year & I think he'll repeat that again. Looking through the market in behind him you've got a number of horses that are unlikely to turn up with the likes of Gaelic Warrior, Jango Bai & the Jukebox Man all destined for the Gold Cup. There is a world where he goes off a odds on favourite in the race again so you'd have to be very brave to want to lay him at 2/1.
Verdict: PLAY
Triumph Hurdle - Narciso Has - 4/1
Again this is the type of market that's hard to have too strong an opinion on with a lot of Juveniles yet to show their hand in what looks like a very competitive race. Narciso Has was one of the best performances over Christmas and is fully entitled to be at the head of the market after that run. I actually put up the mare that beat him first time out in Mange Tout and she's another one that I think would have a massive chance receiving the 7lbs from the boys. You've also got the likes of Macho Man & Proactif who we haven't seen yet but both came over with big reputations from France so it's difficult to nail your colours to a mast with any of them just yet. 4/1 looks short enough to me at this time but based on what he's done he deserves to be there, I'd just want to see what comes out of the DRF before I go in on this market.
Verdict: ON THE FENCE
NOTE: I've purposely left out the Albert Bartlett at this stage with the market almost identical as the Turners including the same favourite. It's a race that's usually hard to find the winner of on the day let alone in January so I'm happy to copy & paste my views on the 2m4f hurdle for this too.
Gold Cup - Galopin Des Champs - 6/1
This race is looking like it could be an absolute cracker with the most entries at this time in recent years along with the fact that we are 6/1 the field! I love Galopin Des Champs and I'd be thrilled to watch he regain his crown as the best staying chaser around however I would be cautious about taking the 6/1. The biggest threat to him has to be his age, He's now a 10yr old with the last winner at his age coming all the way back in 1998 which is quite a significant stat to keep in mind. Having said that, on his day he's still the best of the current crop & I couldn't think about laying him at his current price. You could even make a case that 6/1 is the each-way bet of the century, even if he's not at his best I struggle to him finishing outside of the 3.
Verdict: ON THE FENCE
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